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Unless things really change, I'm afraid I'll have to disagree with you. The reason behind this can be summed up on one short story. I swear it's true...this is not a contrived example.
I have two friends who are seeing each other. They're both in my program, which is computer engineering so needless to say they're both geeks. Both of them have lived with Windows for their entire life. He has EXTENSIVE experience in Windows. This man knows his stuff. He's had many co-op terms based on troubleshooting windows systems and windows systems analysis. He's also high up on the ladder at the local IST company that manages most of the campus networks. My knowledge of windows could never hold a candle to his, and I've always considered myself a "power user." By contrast, she doesn't know her ass from her elbow about computers without the aid of a team of scientists (NOTE: you do NOT need to know shit about computers to be a computer engineer! We're all finishing up our second year and we have not and will not touch on desktop systems and how to use them). The poor girl has been using WinME since it came out and has sworn by it. Of course, as is typical of ME, it's been slowly eating itself up. Well it finally ate the foundation out from under itself because there was a spectacular crash in which she lost everything. She asked her boyfriend (windows pro) to install XP cause she heard it was stable. So over he came, popped in the CD, and within 15 minutes she was up and running. Very stable, very easy. She's barely done a thing to her system since it was set up because all her needs are met. She's experienced no confusion and is quite happy with her new system. This is from someone who gives you a confused look when you say the word "Registry." I've had similar reports from my Mom, who recently bought a new computer. She's just a typical user who uses the computer for web, email, office, and her design program (she owns a kitchen design company). Every now and then she marvels at how easy things are.
Back to my other friend. The windows pro. He's been talking about installing Linux lately and learning a little bit because it's "the thing to do lately." So off he goes to grab Mandrake 9: one of the most commonly recommended newbie distros. Later that night I am assaulted by a plethora of questions. He has NO idea what to do. He finished installing, and things seemed fine and dandy. He was able to surf the web and look up some documentation. Then he went to test out office suites. He was greeted with a landslide of choices. Our conversation went something along these lines:
Him: "Which is the best office suite?"
Me: "They all have strengths and weaknesses. KOffice integrates well with KDE, Gnome office suite with Gnome, and OpenOffice.org is more of a stand-alone product."
Him: "Well which is the standard?"
Me: "There's no real standard."
Him: "Fuck."
Later....
Him: "Ok...I found out where to get my ATI drivers (damn things weren't installed with the OS). How do I install them?"
Me: "Well you're using Mandy 9, so you have 3 options: rpm, tar.gz, and more recently .deb has been added."
Him: "So which is the best."
Me: "They all have strengths and weaknesses. It's up to you to try them all and decide which you like best."
Him: "Fuck."
This is a man who REALLY knows his shit about computers. He's a windows specialist and he knows more than I could ever dream of in hardware, but Linux really has him on the ropes. He's really doing well and trying to pick up as much as he can, but his patience is wearing VERY thin (we're in a demanding program...we DON'T have free time!). Every day he comes up to me with another Linux problem and all too often I'm forced to answer "there's no standard" or "it's kinda something you have to learn" or "ummm...that needs a kernel recompile." He asks questions like "why doesn't a program appear on the KMenu when I install it" and "there isn't any sort of uniform installer for linux like there is in windows is there? All I want is to double-click and have it installed!" and "why doesn't my video card work off the bat?" and "what are dependency issues?" That last one almost broke my heart. I'm afraid he's losing faith fast. I'm doing my best to help him out as much as possible, and pointing him to all the right places, but so far there's been nothing that linux can offer him that windows can't. Still not convinced? Try to find someone who knows nothing about either linux or windows. Tell them how to install a program in windows. Tell them how to install a program in linux. You see the difference, yes? When was the last time a command prompt was NEEDED in windows? I believe it was sometime before 1995.
So there you have it. Computer illiterates VERY happy with WinXP, computer pros struggling to learn Linux. Unless some standards are developed for linux and things are made A LOT easier for those just making the transition, the linux desktop markets are going to stay right where they are: carved out in their tiny little niche.
He loves APT. I think APT won him over when he was able to do apt-get install dopewars. haha! Anyway, he's slowly learning to configure his Linux box by himself, and not relying on me a whole bunch. I'd say the biggest thing is that's keepin' him moving right along is package management. When he wants to install something new, he just apt-get's it and on he goes. No fiddling around with dependency errors and stuff. 
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